China Should Pay Attention to Africa's Year of Elections

 The Ghana-based Africa-China Centre for Policy & Advisory published in April 2024 a commentary titled "The Year of African Elections & Why China Should Not Lose Sight" by Hagan Sibiri.

In 2024, 25 African countries are scheduled for presidential, general, or local elections; 19 are presidential or general.  The author warns that Chinese policymakers should not overlook growing dynamics in African domestic politics and the potential ramifications of African elections on future interaction with China.

Any perception held by Chinese policymakers that Africa constitutes a relatively cohesive coalition in its partnership with China should be reevaluated as it risks overlooking the growing concerns toward Chinese partnerships in numerous African countries.  Given the rising manifestation of anti-Chinese sentiment across Africa, the outcomes of African elections should interest Chinese policymakers in terms of how they may shape China's relations with the continent moving forward.  

Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Are Out of News But Not Over

 War on the Rocks published on 23 April 2024 an analysis titled "Solving the Houthi Threat to Freedom of Navigation" by Allison Minor, Brookings Institution.  

Although Houthi attacks from Yemen on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have faded from the news cycle, the threat is unlikely to go away soon and continues to interrupt commerce in the region.  The international response has not reassured commercial actors to resume major shipping activity in the Red Sea.

An end to the war in Gaza, the Houthis stated reason for initiating the attacks, will not likely end them.  The Houthis demand access to additional Yemeni oil and gas resources in order to strengthen their control over northern Yemen.  An UN-backed political process for dealing with the conflict in Yemen may be the best way out of this conundrum.  

Will the War in Sudan Become More Ethnically Based?

 Aljazeera published on 22 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan War Could Lead to More Ethnic Killings in Volatile Darfur Region" by Mat Nashed.

Increasingly, the conflict in Sudan, especially in Darfur region, is becoming an ethnic conflict.  There are fears that non-Arab Zaghawa, who reside in both Darfur and neighboring Chad, may join the battle in greater numbers.  

Africa Is No Longer a Major Source for Chinese Crude Oil Imports

 Worldstopexports.com recently posted an article titled "Top 15 Crude Oil Suppliers to China" by Daniel Workman.

In 2023, 15 crude exporters accounted for 89 percent of China's total crude imports.  The top supplier was Russia ($94 billion or 18.3 percent of China's imports in 2023), followed by Saudi Arabia ($55 billion or 10.7 percent), and Malaysia ($45.5 billion or 8.8 percent).  

The only African country among the top 15 was Angola at number 12 ($18.8 billion or 3.7 percent).  Even the United States surpassed Angola as a supplier of crude to China at number 9 ($22.4 billion or 4.3 percent).  Angolan exports of crude to China in 2023 slipped 18.5 percent compared with 2022.  China imported small amounts of crude from a few other African countries such as Congo Brazzaville.  This is a sharp reversal of the situation earlier this century when briefly almost one-third of China's crude oil imports originated in Africa. 

Although Iran was not included on the list of China's 15 top crude suppliers in 2023, it is estimated to have provided about 10 percent of the country's total imports.  Small independent Chinese refiners known as "teapots" purchased at deep discount about 90 percent of Iran's crude destined for China.  In order to avoid sanctions, this crude was passed off as originating in Malaysia or the UAE.  For an account of Iranian exports to China, see "Exclusive: Iran's Oil Trade with China Stalls as Tehran Demands Higher Prices." 

Comment:  This significant reduction in China's crude oil imports from Africa may tend to diminish Beijing's strategic interest in the continent, although it continues to rely heavily on the importation of certain critical minerals such as cobalt, tantalum, and manganese.  In addition, sourcing crude oil imports is a dynamic process with a history of quick movement in and out of markets.  As the global political and economic situation evolves, Africa may one day return to favor as a major source of crude for China.    

China's Strategy to Shape Africa's Media Space

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 16 April 2024 an analysis titled "China's Strategy to Shape Africa's Media Space" by Paul Nantulya.

The author describes a global strategy by the Communist Party of China (CPC) to gain influence in developing countries by shaping their information environments.  This raises concerns about the effect that China's heavy media penetration is having on shaping public perceptions in ways that promote Chinese interests even when they undermine African citizen interests.  

Thousands of African journalists participate annually in media exchanges in China.  Money is the key; Chinese media entities support many African media houses struggling with poor equipment, low salaries, and tight budgets.  Nevertheless, the author concludes the effectiveness of Chinese messaging is mixed.  

Sudan: The Situation after One Year of War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 12 April 2024 a 44-minute podcast titled "What's Left of Sudan After a Year at War?"

ICG experts Shewit Woldemichael and Alan Boswell discuss with Richard Atwood the war in Sudan on the eve of its first anniversary.  They review recent gains by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which appeared until recently to have the upper hand.  They unpack the humanitarian crisis and the possibility of famine.  They provide insights on the internal dynamics within the SAF, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF.

They examine the role of outside powers, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the SAF, and the UAE widely thought to be arming the RSF.  They discuss the challenges of getting the warring parties' leaders to engage in a peace process and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.  They conclude that Sudan has essentially collapsed.  

Full Steam Ahead for Chinese Navy Port Calls in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese Navy Steers a Course for African Ports in Beijing's Renewed Diplomatic Push" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

Following a hiatus, except for regular port calls at its naval base in Djibouti, during COVID-19, China's Navy has resumed them in Africa.  The PLA Navy's most recent visits took place at ports in Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar.  

Camels and Climate Change in the Horn of Africa

 The Washington Post published on 17 April 2024 a fascinating story titled "The Survivor Species" by Chico Harlan, Rael Ombuor, and Malin Fezehai.  

Having lost many of their cattle because of drought, traditional herders are turning to camels for milk.  Resistant to climate change, camels may help save lives in the drought-stricken region of the Horn of Africa.  The article offers outstanding color photographs and video montages from Samburu County, Kenya.  

Sudan's Second Year of War Begins: Four Priorities to Deal with It

 The US Institute of Peace published on 18 April 2024 a commentary titled "Four Priorities for Sudan a Year into the Civil War" by Susan Stigant.

The author proposes four priorities for mitigating the impact of Sudan's civil war, which has completed its first year:

--Develop and execute a coherent strategy among the special envoys for Sudan from the United States, United Nations, and African Union.

--Prioritize the provision of humanitarian assistance.

--De-escalate conflict in those parts of Sudan at most risk of mass violence.

--Get back to basics in the next round of the Jeddah peace talks.  

Summarizing Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 16 April 2024 an analysis titled "What Is the Extent of Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis?" by Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy.

The conflict in Sudan, which has been raging for one year, is destroying the infrastructure, breaking down the health system, has caused the world's largest internal displacement crisis, created a major refugee problem, and may result in the world's largest hunger crisis.

Pledges at International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan

 The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on 15 April 2024 a press release titled "International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan and Neighboring Countries."

France, Germany, and the European Union hosted in Paris on 15 April an international humanitarian pledging conference for Sudan and refugees in neighboring countries.  The conference raised $2.2 billion.

The press release included a listing of the individual financial pledges.

The World Bank pledged the most at $555 million, followed by the EU ($385 million), Germany ($265 million), the United States ($162 million), and France ($119 million).  Notably absent from the pledging conference were China, Russia, and all Arab countries except for the UAE ($100 million), Saudi Arabia ($61 million), and Qatar ($25 million).  

Protecting Civilians in Sudan

 The IPI Global Observatory published on 15 April 2024 a commentary titled "One Year Ago, War Broke Out in Sudan.  What Can Be Done to Prioritize Protection of Civilians?" by Julie Gregory, Stimson Center.

There is no UN entity in Sudan focused on the comprehensive protection of civilians.  The UN can only verify and report human rights violations.  There are few good options for addressing this omission.  The best approach for protection of civilians is to incorporate protection issues into the Jeddah peace process led by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

US Special Envoy for Sudan Discusses Prospects for Peace

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 April 2024 a 38-minute podcast titled "New U.S. Envoy on Ending Sudan's War" with Tom Perriello, U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, and Alan Boswell.  

Perriello said the immediate goal is to resume talks in Jeddah hosted by Saudi Arabia and the United States with key actors in the dispute and to seek agreement for an end to the fighting and eventually a return to establishing a civilian government in Sudan.  The talks need to be inclusive and consolidate earlier peace processes.

A split or divided Sudan would not be a good outcome.  The major challenge to peace is the lack of trust among the belligerents and ensuring that Sudan's civil society is part of the process.  Perriello is hopeful the sharply deteriorated humanitarian situation will serve as an incentive for all actors to make a more concentrated effort to end the fighting.

Niger Signs Oil Deal with China as It Moves Away from France and US

 The South China Morning Post published on 17 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese State Firm Agrees to US$400m Loan for Niger Junta in Return for Oil" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Niger's military government signed a $400 million deal with the China National Petroleum Corporation, which will be repaid in crude oil shipments within 12 months at an interest rate of 7 percent.  This deal comes as Niger turns away from France and the United States and towards China and Russia.

Chinese Loans and Labor Fall in Kenya and Across Africa

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 15 April 2024 an article titled "Why Chinese Expats and China Firms' Earnings Continue to Drop" by Dominic Omondi.  

The article notes the drop in Chinese contract labor and loans for infrastructure in Kenya and across Africa following a peak in China's loans to Africa in 2016.  

Sudan Is Not a Lost Cause

 Foreign Policy published on 17 April 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan Is Not a Lost Cause" by Suha Musa, a Sudan researcher.  

The author argues that discussion of Sudan as a lost cause discourages international attention and assistance, allowing apathy to set in.  There needs to be more support for community and grassroots organizations, which remain committed to a peaceful country.  

Sudan: How Two Generals Wrecked Their Country

 The New York Times published on 15 April 2024 an article titled "One Year of War in Sudan: How Two Rival Generals Wrecked Their Country" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Declan Walsh.

After one year of war in Sudan between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's Sudan Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the article summarizes the destruction that now constitutes Africa's third largest country.  

Ethiopia: UN Donor Conference Comes Up Short

 Reuters published on 16 April 2024 an article titled "UN Raises Over $600 mln to Boost Aid to Ethiopia."

A UN-hosted pledging conference raised $629 million in humanitarian assistance for Ethiopia, well short of the $1 billion goal.  The biggest donor was the United States at $253 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $125 million.  

US Announces New Aid for Sudan

 National Public Radio posted on 15 April 2024 an interview with US ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield titled "The U.S.Announces New Aid for Sudan, Where Civil War Broke Out a Year Ago."

The United States announced $100 million in new food aid for Sudan, bringing total American aid to Sudan to $1 billion since the conflict began a year ago.

Chinese Peacekeepers End Service in Democratic Republic of Congo

 Defence Web published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese Sappers Exit DR Congo after 20 Years."

The DRC has asked the UN peacekeeping mission of 15,000 to shut down.  The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has provided an engineering unit for 20 years.   As a result of the DRC decision, the current PLA contingent of 220 ended its contribution last week, leaving a large Chinese peacekeeping force in only one African country--South Sudan.

Sudan Talks Falter and War Expands

 Atlas News published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan Talks Pushed Back as War Expands" by Sebastien Gray.

The proposed 18 April date for the resumption of peace talks between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Saudi Arabia has been pushed back to a time that has not yet been agreed upon.  A collection of militias in north Darfur known as the Joint Force has aligned with the SAF against the RSF, which controls most of Darfur.

Russian Troops Arrive in Niger

 The Washington Post published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Russian Soldiers Arrive in Niger as Relationship with U.S. Deteriorates" by Rachel Chason.

Russian soldiers have arrived in Niger to train the Nigerien army, presumably replacing American trainers who remain at their base in the country.  It is not clear what will happen to the U.S. forces.

Africa Corps and Terrorist Attacks in Niger; Ethiopia-Somalia Tension; Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 Critical Threats Africa File published on 11 April 2024 several items titled "Kremlin's Africa Corps Nears Niger; Ethiopia-Somalia Rift Widens; al-Qaeda Affiliates Strengthen in the Sahel and Horn" by Liam Karr, Matthew Gianitsos, and Josie von Fischer.  

Russia is reported ready to send an Africa Corps contingent to Niger.  An al-Qaeda affiliate has increased its attacks in western Niger since the beginning of 2024.  Ethiopia is advancing bilateral partnerships with autonomous regions in northern Somalia, escalating tensions between the Somali Federal government and Ethiopia.  Al-Shabaab has stepped up attacks in south central Somalia.

Sudan: Halting External Support for Two Military Sides

 The Atlantic Council published on 10 April 2024 a commentary titled "A Diplomatic Solution in Sudan Demands Greater US Engagement with Its Arab Allies" by Menal Fatima.

Halting external support by Arab countries such as the UAE and Egypt for one of the competing armies in Sudan is essential to ending the conflict and putting the country on a path to civilian-led rule.

Sudan after a Year of Civil War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 11 April 2024 a statement titled "Sudan: A Year of War."

The ICG offers a summary over the past year of the conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.